Let’s deal with Greece and the Greek people first because that is fairly simple, they are screwed. Screwed by their own politicians, by the financial people who have done a runner, by the Euro group and IMF who have lent them too much money and the Germans who wont pay their bills anymore, no matter what the outcome in Brussels they are screwed, in or out, the IMF and EU were criminally negligent.
The southern European economic model is based on very simple principles stuff your mattress full of money until there is no room then you pay a little tax, once you have done this then you plead poverty, give me a hand out I am so poor and economic negotiating is carried out on very similar principles, they thought that the idea of borrowing vast sums of money meant the problem was somebody else’s is very much a fallacy it may apply to banks but certainly not governments.
The Greeks have managed to totally alienate the Germans, they are past caring whether they are in or out. But there is one thing The Germans should remember: in the Euro zone stability pact, one country should not run a current account surplus continually, every year. Doing this merely shows the economy of the group is completely out of balance and is doomed for destruction. You cannot make everything in Germany and export it where you will without consequences, spread the wealth.
The Greeks cannot win in this situation, economically there can only be one France.
Geneva is a very different kettle of fish. John Kerry the cripple does he really need crutches or is he going for the sympathy vote? Decisions by committee again as in the Euro Zone with a committee that hates one another. Russia that has sanctions imposed against it by the US and EU, negotiating with those same people to free Iran from UN imposed sanctions. What a joke! Some of these countries wanting a deal at any price so that they can start trading again, and the US being in a cleft stick with The Congress being unlikely to lift sanctions. That same Congress who refused to declare war against Nazi Germany, even while American sailors were being killed in the North Atlantic and millions of Europeans were being butchered by the Gestapo and SS. Even after Pearl Harbour it was Hitler who declared war. America First! and with the Jewish vote heavily pressuring the political class normal relations are unlikely. Jimmy Carter you should have bombed them into submission but that’s in the past, but isn’t everything. I cannot see a good solid outcome here unless American big business see’s itself losing out on the competition.
Inside Iran the Ayatollah is treading a very wobbly line, letting his foreign secretary negotiate one thing then disavowing it so that nobody really knows who they are dealing with. This is one thing the committee need to sort out. Who are they negotiating with? is it the government or is it the clerics? mistrust fills the air after American actions in the fifties. “Operation Ajax” still strongly remembered assassinating a democratically elected prime Minister. But most Politicians like to forget these things however, in a country like Iran they never do and the Iranians need anti-aircraft missiles urgently so that they can protect themselves against the Israeli air strikes.
Not a good way to do business or negotiate a peaceful settlement. So the question really is who will win out money or principles?
(c) Michael Douglas Bosc